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Kashkari, Neel on 2017 December 18 at 16:04

An inverted yield curve ...  is one of the best signals we have of elevated recession risk and has preceded every single recession in the past 50 years.

An inverted yield curve, where short rates are above long rates, is one of the best signals we have of elevated recession risk and has preceded every single recession in the past 50 years. While the yield curve has not yet inverted, the bond market is telling us that the odds of a recession are increasing and that inflation and interest rates will likely be low in the future. These signals should caution the FOMC against further rate increases until it becomes clear that inflation is actually picking up. Kashkari, Neel

Post-FOMC Statement on Dissenting Vote

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