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Kaplan, Robert S. on 2017 December 19

So, let me answer it this way. I've been in the markets my entire adult life. I've been watching them since before I was an adult. And what I have learned is I don't always know what the market is saying, but I know it always pays to try to decipher what it's saying. And I think the bond market is saying expectations for future growth are sluggish and I think it's worth paying attention to that.

KAPLAN:  I said to you when we've talked before, gradual and patient is my key comment. My own [2018] dot was three.  The 10-year Treasury is something I'll be watching. And what the 10-year does will also influence how many rate increases next year...  The yield curve is something I'll be watching carefully. So that could go (ph) the other way. FERRO: The yield curve is flattening and I wonder whether what the signal really is there. Because most people would say there's a massive balance sheet over the ECB, there's a massive balance sheet over the BOJ and that's why we've got this flattening, that's why the ten year yield is not rising. Do you see anything can that does to argue and resonate with you? KAPLAN: So it's a part of it and, by the way, I wish that was all of it. But my own view is a part of what's going on is global liquidity. But I think the bigger part of why the ten year is muted is sluggish expectations for out year GDP growth. And what I mean by that if you look at where potential GDP growth is five years from now, I think it is actually declining from where we are today. Why is that happening?  Aging demographics, slowing workforce growth and sluggish productivity, unless the United States improves early childhood literacy, college readiness and little skills training. So I think the 10-year Treasury tells you more about expectations for future growth which are sluggish. And so if you told me where we're going to have solid GDP growth the next two or three years trailing off to maybe below two percent five years from now, I would have expected a flattish yield curve and that's what you're seeing.  ... MCKEE: You're talking about the 10-year as an indicator of the market's view of long term potential growth. That is completely different than the man down in Washington who seems to think the tax cut is going to change the whole fundamental picture for the United States. Is the market wrong or is the president wrong? KAPLAN: So, let me answer it this way. I've been in the markets my entire adult life. I've been watching them since before I was an adult. And what I learned is I don't always know what the market is saying, but I know it always pays to try to decipher what it's saying. And I think the market is saying expectations for future growth are sluggish and I think it's worth paying attention to that. Kaplan, Robert S.

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