|00:20||Williams (FOMC non-voter)||On fostering sustainable growth in the US|
|08:30||Durable goods||Pulled down by the aircraft sector in May|
|08:30||Chicago Fed NAI||Back into negative territory last month|
|10:30||Dallas Fed manufacturing survey||Down slightly from strong May level|
|11:00||4-week bill announcement||A $5 billion increase possible|
|11:30||3- and 6-month bill auction||Unchanged at $39 billion and $33 billion respectively|
|13:00||2-yr note auction||Steady at $26 billion|
We think Friday’s PCE price indexes for May will mirror the weakness in the latest CPI report. Other noteworthy indicators on the calendar this week include tomorrow’s consumer confidence report, Wednesday’s advance international trade report and the third estimate of Q1 GDP on Thursday. Today’s schedule features durable goods, the Chicago Fed’s national activity index and the Dallas Fed’s regional factory survey.
Today’s bill announcement: 4-week bills
Today’s bill auctions: 3- & 6-month bills
Today's coupon auctions: 2-year notes
In light of last week’s balance sheet runoff announcement from the Fed, it is finally possible to start narrowing down the range of possibilities for Treasury debt issuance over the coming year. Our new baseline forecast is that the Treasury will start to increase its coupon auction sizes in November. The annualized run-rate of gross Treasury coupon issuance seems likely to rise by $500 billion or so by 2019, with increases likely to be tilted (somewhat) toward intermediate maturities.