|08:30||Advance international trade||Wider goods deficit in March|
|08:30||Durable goods||Aircraft-led increase expected in March|
|08:30||Jobless claims||Little change expected|
|10:00||Pending home sales||Small March pullback after big February increase|
|11:00||3- and 6-month bill announcement||A possible increase in both maturities|
|11:00||Kansas City Fed index||Down a little from last month's very strong reading|
|13:00||7-yr note auction||Another $28 billion offering|
The main focus in this morning’s weekly jobless claims report will be on continuing claims, where another low reading could necessitate a downward revision to our forecast for the April unemployment rate. In other major reports on today’s calendar, we expect the advance trade snapshot to show an increase in the nominal goods deficit in March, and we expect the advance durable goods report to show an aircraft-led rise in new orders for that month. The pending home sales index may reverse a small part of February’s big increase and the Kansas City Fed factory index may be down a little from last month’s strong reading.
Today’s bill announcements: 3- & 6-month bills
Today’s coupon auction: 7-year notes
This week’s advance Q1 GDP report should be quite weak and largely irrelevant. It is at times like this that we are reminded of an important truth: friends don’t let friends pay attention to quarterly GDP data. Also, a brief digression on the possibility of a government shutdown this weekend. The Treasury’s auction schedule would not be affected, but next week’s economic data releases (including the employment report) could be delayed if Congress can’t reach a compromise.