|08:30||Chicago Fed NAI||Trend-like reading in May|
|10:00||New home sales||Little change expected in May|
|10:30||Dallas Fed manufacturing survey||Mild pullback likely this month|
|11:00||4-week bill announcement||An unchanged $35 billion offering likey|
|11:30||3- and 6-month bill auction||Steady at current levels|
Today’s economic data calendar features the Chicago Fed national activity index (close to neutral in May), new home sales (little changed in May) and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index (down slightly in June).
Today’s bill announcement: 4-week bills
Today’s bill auctions: 3- and 6-month bills
The spread between the IOER and fed funds rate remained in focus last week. Even though the spread (so far) has only tightened one basis point more than expected, the uptick suggests that there is a greater risk of a second IOER tweak this year than we had previously thought. Separately, the results of the June tax season were mildly disappointing, but did not change our Treasury bill forecasts for July.