|07:00||MBA mortgage prch. index||Flat to somewhat higher in latest week|
|08:30||Housing starts||Should rebound in August|
|08:30||US current account||Much smaller deficit in Q2|
We look for a sharp recovery in housing starts and a slight rise in building permits in the residential construction report for August.
A number of FOMC members in recent weeks have weighed in on the debate over the importance of yield curve signals for the monetary policy outlook. While they are uniformly respectful of the forecasting track record of yield curve indicators, most FOMC members are reluctant (for now) to commit to a “no-inversion” rule. We have a lot of sympathy for that view. It may well be true that “this time is different” are the four most dangerous words in finance, but assuming that the future will be exactly the same as the past can be nearly as hazardous.