Overview: Mon, June 26

Daily Agenda

Time Indicator/Event Comment
00:20Williams (FOMC non-voter)On fostering sustainable growth in the US
08:30Durable goodsPulled down by the aircraft sector in May
08:30Chicago Fed NAIBack into negative territory last month
10:30Dallas Fed manufacturing surveyDown slightly from strong May level
11:004-week bill announcementA $5 billion increase possible
11:303- and 6-month bill auctionUnchanged at $39 billion and $33 billion respectively
13:002-yr note auctionSteady at $26 billion

US Economy

  • Capsule Economic Indicator Summaries for the Week of June 26, 2017

    We think Friday’s PCE price indexes for May will mirror the weakness in the latest CPI report.  Other noteworthy indicators on the calendar this week include tomorrow’s consumer confidence report, Wednesday’s advance international trade report and the third estimate of Q1 GDP on Thursday.  Today’s schedule features durable goods, the Chicago Fed’s national activity index and the Dallas Fed’s regional factory survey.

Treasury Finance

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for June 19, 2017

    In light of last week’s balance sheet runoff announcement from the Fed, it is finally possible to start narrowing down the range of possibilities for Treasury debt issuance over the coming year.  Our new baseline forecast is that the Treasury will start to increase its coupon auction sizes in November.  The annualized run-rate of gross Treasury coupon issuance seems likely to rise by $500 billion or so by 2019, with increases likely to be tilted (somewhat) toward intermediate maturities.

MMO Analysis