|08:30||Chicago Fed NAI||Back into the plus column in September|
|11:00||4-week bill announcement||Another $40 billion offering expected|
|11:30||3- and 6-month bill auction||Steady at $42 billion and $36 billion respectively|
|15:00||Treasury investor class auction data||Mid-October data|
The Chicago Fed’s national tracking index is likely to post a partial rebound from a low reading in August.
This week’s newsletter sketches out our baseline forecast for the decline in reserve balances over the coming year. Over that timeframe, the size and timing of the decline in reserve balances will be driven as much by movements in the Treasury deposit as by the runoff of the Fed’s portfolio, which means that any forecast is very sensitive to assumptions about Treasury borrowing. We consider three alternative scenarios for the timing of Congressional action on the debt limit.