|08:30||Dudley (FOMC voter)|
On workforce development
|08:30||Chicago Fed NAI|
|10:30||Dallas Fed manufacturing survey|
|11:00||4-week bill announcement||An unchanged $35 billion offering expected|
|11:30||3- and 6-month bill auction||Steady at $42 billion and $36 billion respectively|
|12:40||Evans (FOMC voter)||On economy and economic policy|
|18:30||Kashkari (FOMC voter)||At Townhall meeting|
A variety of housing, consumer sentiment and regional factory indexes are scheduled to be released over the course of the week. The highlights of the economic data calendar come toward the end of the week, however, with third estimate of Q2 GDP (likely to be revised higher once again) on Thursday and PCE and PCE prices (weak consumption but above-trend inflation) on Friday. Today’s schedule includes the Chicago Fed national tracking index and the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey. We will keep an eye out for hurricane effects in both reports.
It is a foregone conclusion that the Fed will leave rates on hold but announce the beginning of its balance sheet runoff at this week’s FOMC meeting. The big question is how the Fed will frame the debate over the possibility of a third rate hike in December. We assume that Chair Yellen will want to keep her options open at this point. As long as the Fed does nothing to take a rate hike off the table this week, the market in the near term may continue to bump up the implied odds of another move by year-end.