|08:10||Bostic (FOMC voter)||On the economic outlook|
|08:30||Durable goods||May reverse previous month's drop in February|
|10:00||New home sales||Also likely to reverse some or all of January decline|
|10:30||Kashkari (FOMC non-voter)||Speaks at moderated Q&A|
|12:00||Industrial production revisions||Annual benchmark and seasonal factor revisions|
|19:00||Rosengren (FOMC non-voter)||At international research forum|
Core capital goods orders should move higher in February after a 3-month soft patch. New home sales appeared to be too low last month, and may rebound this morning.
There is little doubt that the Fed will raise rates this week, and our guess is that Wednesday’s dot-plot will suggest a somewhat more hawkish policy stance for 2019 and 2020 as well. Separately, the spread between the IOER rate and the effective fed funds rate tightened a week sooner than we anticipated. We continue to expect another one-basis-point tightening in June.