|08:30||Housing starts||Partial reversal of June plunge|
|08:30||Phila. Fed mfg survey||Little change expected this month|
|08:30||Jobless claims||Close to recent very low levels in latest week|
|11:00||5-yr TIPS (r) announcement||An unchanged $14 billion offering expected|
|11:00||3- and 6-month bill announcement||Unchanged $51 billion and $45 billion offerings expected|
|11:00||Small-value bill purchase operation||Test exercise not to exceed $100 million in value|
We look for across-the-board increases (though of varying magnitudes) in single- and multi-family housing starts and building permits in July. This month’s Philadelphia Fed factory survey is likely to be down very slightly. Our guess is that initial jobless claims will be flat and continuing claims up slightly in the latest week’s report.
Today’s bill announcements: 3- and 6-month bills
Today’s coupon announcement: 5-year TIPS reopening
This week’s issue features our regular quarterly chartbook of foreign holdings of Fed balances. The aggregate level of reserve balances held by foreign banks as of June 30 was little changed from recent quarter-ends, but the composition (as usual) shifted somewhat. The data thus far have not told us much about how the distribution of reserve holdings will evolve as the Fed’s balance sheet contraction picks up steam in the months ahead. The data for the next couple of quarters may be more illuminating.