wricaplogo

Keyword Search

RETURN

Categories

Recent FedSpeak Highlights

  • Ben Bernanke My view is that taking all the new data into account, that there is really no material change in our expectations for the U.S. economy.

    [ February 28, 2007 ]

    I will say that the Federal Reserve, in collaboration with the president's working group, has been closely monitoring the markets. They seem to be working well, normally.

    We've also, of course, been closely monitoring the economy, looking at new data and trying to evaluate their implications for the forecast.

    And my view is that taking all the new data into account that there is really no material change in our expectations for the U.S. economy since I last reported to Congress a couple of weeks ago in the Humphrey-Hawkins hearings.

     ...We are looking for moderate growth in the U.S. economy going forward.  And I would add, parenthetically, that the downward revision of the fourth quarter GDP numbers we got this morning is actually more consistent with our overall view of the economy than were the original numbers.

    ...So we expect moderate growth going forward. We believe that if the housing sector begins to stabilize and if some of the inventory corrections that are still going on in manufacturing begin to be completed, that there's a reasonable possibility that we'll see some strengthening of the economy sometime during the middle of the year.

    During Q&A session.

  • Jeffrey Lacker I don't think policy is restrictive, and in fact I see that policy is, if anything, somewhat accommodative.

    [ February 27, 2007 ]

    I don't think policy is restrictive, and in fact I see that policy is, if anything, somewhat accommodative.

    In a Market News interview

    More From:

    See Also:

    Venue:

    Market News International Interview
  • Janet L. Yellen A key question for inflation going forward —and therefore, for monetary policy—is what happens if the drag from housing and autos disappears later this year? As I’ve stressed, with labor markets apparently somewhat tight, something else will need to slow to keep growth below potential.

    [ February 21, 2007 ]

    A key question for inflation going forward —and therefore, for monetary policy—is what happens if the drag from housing and autos disappears later this year? As I’ve stressed, with labor markets apparently somewhat tight, something else will need to slow to keep growth below potential.

    More From:

    See Also:

    Source:

    http://www.frbsf.org/news/speeches/2007/0221.html

    Venue:

    Silicon Valley Leadership Group
  • Michael Moskow In my judgment, while some risks to the outlook for growth remain a concern, these have diminished noticeably in recent months.

    [ February 16, 2007 ]

    In setting policy, the Federal Reserve needs to be mindful of the risks to the outlook for both growth and inflation. In my judgment, while some risks to the outlook for growth remain a concern, these have diminished noticeably in recent months. Housing will likely still be a negative for growth during the first half of this year, but it has shown signs of stabilization. And the risks of spillovers to other parts of the economy do not appear to be unduly large.  

  • Ben Bernanke If inflation becomes higher for some reason, the Federal Reserve would have to be respond by raising interest rates.

    [ February 15, 2007 ]

    We have had a period where inflation is above where we like to see it as far as consistency with price stability is concerned. In order for this expansion to continue in a sustainable way, inflation has to be well controlled.  If inflation becomes higher for some reason, the Federal Reserve would have to be respond by raising interest rates.

    In response to a question from Barney Frank  

  • Ben Bernanke In the statement accompanying last month's policy decision, the FOMC again indicated that its predominant policy concern is the risk that inflation will fail to ease as expected and that it is prepared to take action to address inflation risks if developments warrant.

    [ February 14, 2007 ]

    In the statement accompanying last month's policy decision, the FOMC again indicated that its predominant policy concern is the risk that inflation will fail to ease as expected and that it is prepared to take action to address inflation risks if developments warrant.

  • Richard Fisher I wouldn’t rule out further increases in the federal funds rate if inflationary winds gain the upper hand.

    [ February 9, 2007 ]

    I wouldn’t rule out further increases in the federal funds rate if inflationary winds gain the upper hand. Indeed, if increases are needed, I would aggressively advocate for them. But for now, I am as comfortable with the inflationary outlook as a prudent central banker can be. No central banker can ever be smug about containing the risk of inflation, but I am pleased with the current direction of inflationary impulses.

  • Sandra Pianalto Some additional policy firming may be needed - depending, of course, on the outlook for both inflation and economic growth.

    [ February 9, 2007 ]

    The national inflation picture has been clouded in the past few years by large swings in energy, commodity, and housing prices. As these markets normalize, and as we gain a clearer picture of the underlying inflation trend, we may see that some inflation risks remain. In that case, some additional policy firming may be needed - depending, of course, on the outlook for both inflation and economic growth.

    More From:

    Source:

    http://www.clevelandfed.org/dsp_showdetail_PressRel.cfm?contentId=648&detailId=603

    Venue:

    Southwest Florida Speakers Assembly
  • William Poole If, however, core inflation seems to be settling at a rate above 2 percent, then such an outcome would be unacceptable to me.

    [ February 9, 2007 ]

    If, however, core inflation seems to be settling at a rate above 2 percent, then such an outcome would be unacceptable to me. I put a very high weight on the Fed’s responsibility to maintain low and stable inflation...

    My commitment, certainly, is to do what I can to promote policy adjustments that will yield an inflation outcome, on average over a period of several years, centered on 1½ percent on the core PCE price index. Such an outcome will ensure that the FOMC maintains its current high level of credibility. Maintaining price stability is central to maximizing sustainable economic growth and the highest possible level of employment.     

  • Charles Plosser Inflation stopped accelerating in the last few months, but whether it will continue to recede in the coming year is not yet clear. Additional monetary policy action may be needed to keep us moving along the path to price stability. 

    [ February 7, 2007 ]

    I expect real GDP to grow by about 3 percent, which I estimate to be its underlying trend rate. That kind of growth should hold the unemployment rate to just below 5 percent. The outlook for inflation is more uncertain. Inflation stopped accelerating in the last few months, but whether it will continue to recede in the coming year is not yet clear. Additional monetary policy action may be needed to keep us moving along the path to price stability. 

  • Janet L. YellenWe've got a 4.6% unemployment rate.  That's great, if it stays in that region.

    [ February 6, 2007 ]

    More From:

    See Also:

    Source:

    http://www.frbsf.org/news/speeches/2007/0206.html

    Venue:

    Asia Society of Southern California
  • Thomas HoenigIn my opinion, there has been a discrepancy lately between the views of the FOMC members, as summarized in the Committee’s public statements, and the views of many financing market participants.  Although there is a wide range of views in the market, some participants have jumped to the conclusion that monetary policy will be eased in the near future.  Surveys of financial market economists show that many expect an easing in monetary policy sometime this year.  In addition, the yield curve and financing futures prices incorporate some expected easing of monetary policy later this year.

    In contrast, the FOMC has continued to express its concern about upside inflation risks. After its last meeting on December 12, the FOMC stated that “some inflation risk remain” and that “the extent and timing of any additional firming” would depend on how incoming data affected the outlook for growth and inflation.  

    In my view, the easing of monetary policy that market participants expect would be appropriate only if inflation clearly subsided from recent elevated levels, and if the incoming data implied the inflation outlook would remain favorable in the future.  In my judgment, it is premature to conclude that current conditions define a clear path for policy.

    [ January 19, 2007 ]
  • Jeffrey Lacker The risk that core inflation surges again, or does not subside as desired, clearly remains the predominant macroeconomic policy risk.

    [ January 19, 2007 ]

    The November inflation reports, however, have provided some tentative evidence suggesting a moderating trend. For example, the three-month average rate of change in the core PCE price index fell to 1.8 percent in November. That inflation measure has exhibited substantial oscillations, however – it fell to 1.8 percent in February of last year before rising to 2.9 percent within three months when energy prices surged. In view of the recent record, it will take several months worth of data to provide statistically convincing evidence of a moderation in inflation. In the meantime, the risk that core inflation surges again, or does not subside as desired, clearly remains the predominant macroeconomic policy risk.

  • Sandra Pianalto... I see the economy growing at a more moderate pace over the next few years than we saw in the past couple of years. But there are risks to this outlook. The first risk is that the weakness in the housing sector spills over to other sectors of the economy, depressing overall growth. The second risk is that inflation remains stubbornly high...

    The most recent price statistics have been encouraging, but not convincing...

    ...[T]here is still a risk that the underlying inflation trend will not continue to improve; in which case, the FOMC will need to respond with the appropriate policy actions.

    [ January 18, 2007 ]
  • Janet L. Yellen I find recent inflation readings encouraging, but I also am keenly aware that this pattern has yet to show up in the data on any sort of a sustained basis.

    [ January 17, 2007 ]

    I find recent inflation readings encouraging, but I also am keenly aware that this pattern has yet to show up in the data on any sort of a sustained basis. The inflation situation remains uncertain and, in particular, there are upside risks to my outlook, especially having to do with the situation in labor markets.

    More From:

    See Also:

    Source:

    http://www.frbsf.org/news/speeches/2007/0117.html

    Venue:

    Arizona Council on Economic Education
  • Frederic Mishkin I am in the camp of those who argue that monetary policy makers should restrict their efforts to achieving their dual mandate of stabilizing inflation and employment and should not alter policy to have preemptive effects on asset prices.

    [ January 17, 2007 ]

    A special role for asset prices in the conduct of monetary policy requires three key assumptions. First, one must assume that a central bank can identify a bubble in progress... A second assumption needed to justify a special role for asset prices is that monetary policy cannot appropriately deal with the consequences of a burst bubble, and so preemptive actions against a bubble are needed... A third assumption needed to justify a special focus on asset prices in the conduct of monetary policy is that a central bank actually knows the appropriate monetary policy to deflate a bubble Because I doubt that any of the three assumptions needed to justify a special monetary policy focus on asset prices holds up, I am in the camp of those who argue that monetary policy makers should restrict their efforts to achieving their dual mandate of stabilizing inflation and employment and should not alter policy to have preemptive effects on asset prices.

  • Cathy Minehan Inflation has been and remains a challenge, though recent data provide a bit of assurance that price pressures may be beginning to ebb.

    [ January 12, 2007 ]

    Inflation has been and remains a challenge, though recent data provide a bit of assurance that price pressures may be beginning to ebb.

    More From:

    See Also:

    Source:

    http://www.bos.frb.org/news/speeches/cem/2007/011207.htm

    Venue:

    Vermont Economic Outlook Conference
  • Richard Fisher I am very comfortable with where we are now in terms of our policy. 

    [ January 10, 2007 ]

    We have a pretty good cruising speed currently... We have seen some very encouraging news {about inflation}...  I am very comfortable with where we are now in terms of our policy. 

    From a Bloomberg TV interview.

    More From:

    See Also:

    Venue:

    Bloomberg TV
  • Donald Kohn I believe it is still too early to relax our concerns about whether the run-up in price pressures in the spring and summer of last year is truly unwinding and whether it is unwinding rapidly enough.

    [ January 8, 2007 ]

    In my view, however, what we are seeing in the recent information on factory output and capital spending is not the leading edge of general economic weakness but instead an adjustment to a sustained pace of expansion that, necessarily, is less rapid than that from mid-2003 to mid-2006...

    ...

    So, despite the recent favorable price data, I believe it is still too early to relax our concerns about whether the run-up in price pressures in the spring and summer of last year is truly unwinding and whether it is unwinding rapidly enough to forestall a pickup in inflation expectations.

  • Cathy Minehan Thus, as the year ended, the economy seemed to have completed that difficult down-shift in tempo, often referred to as a soft landing...   But for the 12-month period as a whole, core remained close to its third-quarter high, suggesting inflation may be slow to taper off.

    [ January 5, 2007 ]

    Thus, as the year ended, the economy seemed to have completed that difficult down-shift in tempo, often referred to as a soft landing. On the inflation front, pressures seemed to ease a bit as November headline CPI grew at an annual pace just under 2 percent and core CPI was flat for the month. But for the 12-month period as a whole, core remained close to its third-quarter high, suggesting inflation may be slow to taper off.

    More From:

    See Also:

    Source:

    http://www.bos.frb.org/news/speeches/cem/2007/010507.htm

    Venue:

    Connecticut Business and Industry Association