When Chair Powell said last month that the Fed would slow the pace of QT “fairly soon”, we initially thought that was likely to mean a shift in June rather than May.  Upon reflection, we now think it is more likely that the Fed will get the runoff adjustment out of the way at next month’s meeting.  That would have immediate consequences for Treasury bill issuance, as the drain on the Treasury’s cash position from Fed runoffs would ease substantially.  We have tentatively added a round of modest cutbacks in short-term bill offerings to our projections for early May as a result.  Of course, the bill outlook could (and probably will) evolve further over the remainder of this month as the results of the April tax season become clearer.  Finally, we have a very brief follow-up to our Wednesday morning comments about debt ceiling constraints on the Treasury’s cash balance on December 31.