|08:30||Jobless claims||Little change expected this week|
|10:00||New home sales||Substantial decline expected|
|11:00||Kansas City Fed index||Likely to be flat this month|
|11:00||3- and 6-month bill announcement||No changes expected|
|11:00||2-, 5-, 7-yr, and 2-yr FRN (r) note announcement||No changes expected|
|11:30||1- and 2-month bill auction||$5 billion reduction in the 1-month bill|
|13:00||Kaplan, Daly, Bostic and Barkin||On panel in Dallas|
|13:00||10-yr TIPS (r) auction||$11 billion offering|
We expect initial claims to stay in the 210K to 215K range in this week’s report. Both the headline index and the ISM-weighted index in the Kansas City Fed factory survey should be little changed this month. Our guess is that April new home sales will be much lower than the 692K currently reported for March.
Today’s bill announcements: 3- and 6-month bills
Today’s coupon announcements: 2-, 5- and 7-year notes; 2-year FRN reopening
Today’s bill auctions: 1- and 2-month bills
Today’s coupon auction: 10-year TIPS reopening
It turns out that we were not sufficiently skeptical about the surprising shift in the maturity structure of foreign holdings of Treasury securities discussed in last week’s newsletter. The Treasury published a correction to the data on Wednesday, which we summarize in this week’s newsletter. This issue also briefly looks at the geographic distribution of foreign holdings of TIPS (which are rising) and Treasury FRNs (which are not). Finally, we have included our regular quarterly chartbook of foreign holdings of reserve balances as of March 31.