Overview: Thu, May 23

Daily Agenda

Time Indicator/Event Comment
08:30Jobless claimsLittle change expected this week
10:00New home salesSubstantial decline expected
11:00Kansas City Fed indexLikely to be flat this month
11:003- and 6-month bill announcementNo changes expected
11:002-, 5-, 7-yr, and 2-yr FRN (r) note announcementNo changes expected
11:301- and 2-month bill auction$5 billion reduction in the 1-month bill
13:00Kaplan, Daly, Bostic and BarkinOn panel in Dallas
13:0010-yr TIPS (r) auction$11 billion offering

US Economy

  • Economic Indicator Preview for Thursday, May 23, 2019

    We expect initial claims to stay in the 210K to 215K range in this week’s report.  Both the headline index and the ISM-weighted index in the Kansas City Fed factory survey should be little changed this month.  Our guess is that April new home sales will be much lower than the 692K currently reported for March.

Federal Reserve and the Overnight Market

Treasury Finance

  • Treasury Highlights for Thursday, May 23, 2019

    Today’s bill announcements:  3- and 6-month bills
    Today’s coupon announcements: 2-, 5- and 7-year notes; 2-year FRN reopening
    Today’s bill auctions:  1- and 2-month bills
    Today’s coupon auction:  10-year TIPS reopening

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for May 20, 2019

    It turns out that we were not sufficiently skeptical about the surprising shift in the maturity structure of foreign holdings of Treasury securities discussed in last week’s newsletter.  The Treasury published a correction to the data on Wednesday, which we summarize in this week’s newsletter.  This issue also briefly looks at the geographic distribution of foreign holdings of TIPS (which are rising) and Treasury FRNs (which are not).  Finally, we have included our regular quarterly chartbook of foreign holdings of reserve balances as of March 31.

MMO Analysis