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Overview: Thu, February 21

Daily Agenda

Time Indicator/Event Comment
07:50Bostic (FOMC non-voter)On economic and monetary policy
08:30Durable goodsAircraft-led increase expected in December
08:30Phila. Fed mfg surveySlight improvement this month
08:30Jobless claimsMay finally recede from recent highs this week
10:00Existing home salesMild further decline expected in January
10:00Leading indicatorsLikely to be roughly flat in January
11:002-, 5-, and 7-yr note announcementNo changes expected
11:003- and 6-month and year-bill announcementUncertainty about CMBs
11:301- and 2-month bill auction$50 billion and $35 billion respectively
13:0030-yr TIPS auction$1 billion increase to $8 bilion

US Economy

  • Economic Indicator Preview for Thursday, February 21, 2019

    Thursday morning will be the high point of this week’s otherwise light economic data calendar.  We think the delayed December durable goods report will show an uptick in new orders, led by the civilian aircraft category.  The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index seems likely to follow the lead of the Empire State report with a modest improvement.  Our assumption is that initial claims will slip to the 220K to 230K range in today’s report, but we will give more weight to the recent trend if they remain higher than we expect this week.  We look for another small pullback in the existing home sales index in January.

Treasury Finance

  • Treasury Highlights for Thursday, February 21, 2019

    Today’s bill announcements:  3- and 6-month bills; year-bills
    Today’s coupon announcements:  2-, 5- and 7-year notes
    Today's bill auctions:  1- and 2-month bills
    Today’s coupon auction:  30-year TIPS

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for February 18, 2019

    The outlook for tax refunds should start to clarify itself this week.  Refund issuance has been relatively light thus far, but both the average and number of refunds issued should ramp up dramatically this week.  Also, this week’s issue includes our quarterly overview of foreign bank holdings of reserve balances at the Fed, reflecting data as of December 31.

Federal Reserve Commentary

MMO Analysis