|07:50||Bostic (FOMC non-voter)||On economic and monetary policy|
|08:30||Durable goods||Aircraft-led increase expected in December|
|08:30||Phila. Fed mfg survey||Slight improvement this month|
|08:30||Jobless claims||May finally recede from recent highs this week|
|10:00||Existing home sales||Mild further decline expected in January|
|10:00||Leading indicators||Likely to be roughly flat in January|
|11:00||2-, 5-, and 7-yr note announcement||No changes expected|
|11:00||3- and 6-month and year-bill announcement||Uncertainty about CMBs|
|11:30||1- and 2-month bill auction||$50 billion and $35 billion respectively|
|13:00||30-yr TIPS auction||$1 billion increase to $8 bilion|
Thursday morning will be the high point of this week’s otherwise light economic data calendar. We think the delayed December durable goods report will show an uptick in new orders, led by the civilian aircraft category. The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index seems likely to follow the lead of the Empire State report with a modest improvement. Our assumption is that initial claims will slip to the 220K to 230K range in today’s report, but we will give more weight to the recent trend if they remain higher than we expect this week. We look for another small pullback in the existing home sales index in January.
Today’s bill announcements: 3- and 6-month bills; year-bills
Today’s coupon announcements: 2-, 5- and 7-year notes
Today's bill auctions: 1- and 2-month bills
Today’s coupon auction: 30-year TIPS
The outlook for tax refunds should start to clarify itself this week. Refund issuance has been relatively light thus far, but both the average and number of refunds issued should ramp up dramatically this week. Also, this week’s issue includes our quarterly overview of foreign bank holdings of reserve balances at the Fed, reflecting data as of December 31.