| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | Bostic (FOMC voter) | Speaks in London on the economic outlook |
| 08:30 | Chicago Fed NAI | |
| 10:15 | Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) | On policy and the economy |
| 11:00 | Treasury buyback announcement (liq support) | Nominal coupons 20Y to 30Y |
| 11:30 | 13- and 26-wk bill auction | $76 billion and $70 billion respectively |
| 13:00 | Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) | On economic impact of early childhood education |
| 15:00 | Treasury investor class auction data | Mid-September data |
Economic Indicator Preview for Monday, September 23, 2024
There is an unusual degree of uncertainty heading into this week’s FOMC meeting. Like many market participants, we had thought the August CPI report would probably resolve the 25-versus-50 debate in favor of a quarter-point initial rate cut. However, the Fed went out of its way to put a half-point cut back on the table at the end of the week, which would seem to tilt the odds in favor of a more aggressive start to this easing cycle. In a close call, we think the Fed is likely to lower its funds rate target by 50 basis points on Wednesday. The median 2024 FOMC rate forecast in the dot plot now seems likely to assume 100 basis points of easing by year-end.
