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Commentary

Employment

Michael Moskow

Wed, May 25, 2005

Workers who had held their jobs for a substantial period of time but lost them through changes beyond their control—such as technological change leading to a plant closing or reduction in force. The fact that job loss rates have been high, even though unemployment has been relatively low, suggests that the pace of change in the economy has increased. It also means that a larger-than-normal fraction of the unemployed face difficult challenges in finding new employment.

Michael Moskow

Wed, May 25, 2005

If a firm gives longer notice of impending lay-offs or offers outplacement services, then it may have an easier time retaining other workers. But if the firm treats laid-off employees poorly, then other workers are more likely to leave as soon as they get an attractive offer.

Michael Moskow

Wed, May 25, 2005

Job displacement is affecting an increasingly diverse group of workers. If we do not attend to the needs of displaced workers, concern about their future may block policies that help improve our overall standard of living. And this could have costly consequences for the economy as a whole if it were to stifle technology and competition.

Michael Moskow

Wed, May 25, 2005

Many displaced workers have skills that are highly specific to their employer or industry, and the value of those skills often disappears along with their jobs. Displaced workers often take a long time to find a new job, which translates into large chunks of lost income. More importantly, even after they find new jobs, displaced workers earn about 17 percent less, on average than in the job they lost.

Jack Guynn

Tue, May 24, 2005

Labor market developments have improved considerably...We’ve seen solid job growth in business services, leisure and hospitality, and retail, among other industries. These additional paychecks are crucial to keeping growth on track.

William Poole

Tue, May 10, 2005

The large increase in employment in April reported on Friday, and upward revisions of employment data for February and March, dispelled much of the soft-patch talk.

William Poole

Tue, May 10, 2005

There's less slack than there was but when you talk to firms you get the sense that labor is in pretty plentiful supply, with the exception of a few specialized areas.

William Poole

Tue, May 10, 2005

I don't get anecdotal evidence from firms saying they're having trouble finding qualified applicants. It's a lot different than when I first came to St. Louis, which was in 1998 and 1999 ... that suggests to me that the labor market still has a fair amount of slack.

William Poole

Tue, May 10, 2005

It looks like there is a fair amount of room for expansion of employment without creating a lot of upward pressure on wages.

Roger Ferguson

Tue, April 19, 2005

Because the current account deficit reflects the excess of our country's imports over our exports, the deficit's descent into record territory has helped crystalize fears that the economy is losing competitiveness and that U.S. jobs and incomes are suffering as a result.

Anthony Santomero

Wed, April 06, 2005

The fact is that the standard error for the one-month change in payroll numbers is nearly 70,000, and making too much of any one monthly number is ill-advised...it is important to not overemphasize short-term deviations while ignoring long term trends.

Cathy Minehan

Thu, March 31, 2005

Evidence supporting the view that slack remains [in the labor market] includes the relatively muted increases in wages and prices to date, as well as low labor force participation rates. Participation rates for prime-age workers – especially women – are lower than one would expect given the growth of the overall economy.

Janet Yellen

Tue, March 01, 2005

An accommodative monetary policy stance is appropriate when there is excess slack in the labor market—the current situation—or when inflation is below desirable levels. In my judgment, inflation is now at a level consistent with price stability. With slack in the economy diminishing, the degree of monetary accommodation also needs to diminish over time, toward neutral, for inflation to remain well contained.

Janet Yellen

Tue, March 01, 2005

The expansion began as a jobless recovery, but the data on job creation have been consistently positive for most of last year...The unemployment rate fell to 5.2 percent, reasonably close to common estimates of “full employment.” Other indicators, however, including the fraction of the population that is employed and measures of job vacancies suggest that quite a bit more slack remains than might be surmised from the unemployment rate.

Janet Yellen

Tue, March 01, 2005

The record of job creation during the past year is by no means spectacular, but it’s good enough to suggest firming in the labor market and a gradual elimination of remaining slack.

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