Going forward, the economic outcomes that the committee sees as most likely involve continuing gains in labor markets supported by moderate growth that picks up over the next several quarters as the near-term restraint from fiscal policy and other headwinds diminishes. We also see inflation moving back toward our 2 percent objective over time.
If the incoming data are broadly consistent with this forecast, the committee currently anticipates that it would be appropriate to moderate the monthly pace of purchases later this year and that the subsequent data remain broadly aligned with our current expectations for the economy, we will continue to reduce the pace of purchases in measured steps through the first half of next year, ending purchases around mid-year.
In this scenario, when asset purchases ultimately come to an end, the unemployment rate would likely be in the vicinity of 7 percent, with solid economic growth supporting further job gains, a substantial improvement from the 8.1 percent unemployment rate that prevailed when the committee announced this program.
Later, in response to a question about whether this was a formal committee decision:
Well, again, we don't think of this as a change in policy. What I was deputized to do, if you will, was to try to make somewhat clearer the implications of our existing policy and to try to explain better how the policy would evolve in various economic scenarios. And that's a little bit difficult to put into, you know, a very terse FOMC statement.
Now, that being said, going forward, I think that, you know, some of this -- some of these elements -- to the extent that we can make them useful will begin to appear in the FOMC statement. It's entirely possible. But it seemed like the right tactic in this case to -- to explain these fairly subtle contingencies in a context where I could answer questions and -- and respond to any misunderstandings that -- that might occur.