QUESTION: Mr. Chairman, this is the third straight set of economic projections you have released that have downgraded forecasts for growth and for employment. I wonder, is there some systematic error or some blind spot that's -- that's behind these kind of overly optimistic forecasts? What are you doing internally to understand what you got wrong the last few projections?
BERNANKE: Well, it's a perfectly fair question. And, you know, we spend a lot of time reviewing those errors. The staff in particular presents us with information on forecast errors and on revisions, et cetera. And so we look at that very carefully.
I think it's clear that in retrospect that the severity of the financial crisis and a number of other problems, including the dysfunction in the housing market, have been more severe and more persistent than we initially believed. And that together with a number of other phenomena, like deleveraging by the household sector and so on, has slowed the pace of recovery.
So, yes, we have again downgraded the medium-term forecast. Evidently, the forces, you know, the drags on the recovery were stronger than we thought.
I would add, however, though, that although I think it's very important to look at the fundamental factors affecting the recovery, there's been some elements of bad luck. For example, this year the combination of the natural disaster in Japan, which had global impacts in terms of growth, oil price increases, the European debt crisis, which was not anticipated to be as severe and create as much volatility as it has in financial markets, all those things have been negatives for growth. And they do explain at least part of the downward revision.