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Commentary

Policy Outlook

Richard Fisher

Tue, September 29, 2009

Many of the Fed’s special credit facilities have been winding down at a rapid clip as financial markets have begun to function in a more normal manner. And my colleagues have come to accept the arguments I made regarding the necessity for the Fed to maintain its independence from the Treasury by not increasing its purchases of long-term Treasury securities. As to the Federal Reserve reducing its balance sheet so as not to monetize the excess reserves waiting to be converted to bank loans, I have been very clear: Given the lag between the time monetary policy is initiated and when it impacts the economy, that wind-down process needs to begin as soon as there are convincing signs that economic growth is gaining traction and that the lending capacity of the banking system is capable of expansion.

I am not alone on this front. I have faith my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee will stand and deliver in a timely way. And I expect that when it comes time to tighten monetary policy, my colleagues and I will move with an alacrity that, if needed, will be equal in speed and intensity to that with which we pursued monetary accommodation.

Kevin Warsh

Fri, September 25, 2009

In my view, if policymakers insist on waiting until the level of real activity has plainly and substantially returned to normal--and the economy has returned to self-sustaining trend growth--they will almost certainly have waited too long. A complication is the large volume of banking system reserves created by the nontraditional policy responses. There is a risk, of much debated magnitude, that the unusually high level of reserves, along with substantial liquid assets of the banking system, could fuel an unanticipated, excessive surge in lending. Predicting the conversion of excess reserves into credit is more difficult to judge due to the changes in the credit channel.

Kevin Warsh

Fri, September 25, 2009

Ultimately, when the decision is made to remove policy accommodation further, prudent risk management may prescribe that it be accomplished with greater swiftness than is modern central bank custom. The Federal Reserve acted preemptively in providing monetary stimulus, especially in early 2008 when the economy appeared on an uneven, uncertain trajectory. If the economy were to turn up smartly and durably, policy might need to be unwound with the resolve equal to that in the accommodation phase. That is, the speed and force of the action ahead may bear some corresponding symmetry to the path that preceded it. Of course, if the economy remains mired in weak economic conditions, and inflation and inflation expectation measures are firmly anchored, then policy could remain highly accommodative.

"Whatever it takes" is said by some to be the maxim that marked the battle of the last year. But, it cannot be an asymmetric mantra, trotted out only during times of deep economic and financial distress, and discarded when the cycle turns. If "whatever it takes" was appropriate to arrest the panic, the refrain might turn out to be equally necessary at a stage during the recovery to ensure the Fed's institutional credibility. The asymmetric application of policy ultimately could cause the innovative policy approaches introduced in the past couple of years to lose their standing as valuable additions in the arsenal of central bankers.

Richard Fisher

Tue, September 08, 2009

Given the lag between the time monetary policy is initiated and when it impacts the economy, that wind-down process needs to begin as soon as there are convincing signs that economic growth is gaining traction and that the lending capacity of the banking system is capable of expansion. Cynics retort that "the Fed may know what to do—but will it have the guts to pull the trigger?" Well, we Texans are not afraid to pull the trigger (as anybody knows who has gone duck hunting with vice presidents of the United States!). I have faith my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee will stand and deliver in a timely way.

Dennis Lockhart

Wed, August 26, 2009

[I]t's too early to be contemplating a rise in the fed funds rate target.

As reported by Dow Jones Newswires.

William Dudley

Wed, July 29, 2009

[C]oncern about “when” the Fed will exit from its current accommodative monetary policy stance is, in my view, very premature...Why do I believe it is so important to explain the issue of “how” having just argued that “when” is not yet a pressing issue? The reason is that if people believe—correctly or incorrectly—that the Federal Reserve could have a problem managing a smooth exit from its accommodative policy stance, this belief alone could have the adverse effect of causing inflation expectations to become less well anchored and risk premia on long-dated debt securities and loans to rise. These effects could conceivably make it more difficult to generate a sustainable economic recovery.

Janet Yellen

Tue, July 28, 2009

"We have got to be ahead of the curve" and raise rates before the economy is fully recovered, but that said, "this is not the time" to raise rates, Yellen said.


As reported by Dow Jones Newswires.

Charles Plosser

Mon, July 27, 2009

I think we will probably have to begin raising rates sometime in the not-too-distant future...I also don't want to repeat the Great Inflation of the 1970s.


As reported by The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires.

Ben Bernanke

Mon, July 20, 2009

The depth and breadth of the global recession has required a highly accommodative monetary policy. Since the onset of the financial crisis nearly two years ago, the Federal Reserve has reduced the interest-rate target for overnight lending between banks (the federal-funds rate) nearly to zero. We have also greatly expanded the size of the Fed’s balance sheet through purchases of longer-term securities and through targeted lending programs aimed at restarting the flow of credit My colleagues and I believe that accommodative policies will likely be warranted for an extended period.  At some point, however, as economic recovery takes hold, we will need to tighten monetary policy to prevent the emergence of an inflation problem down the road.  The Federal Open Market Committee, which is responsible for setting U.S. monetary policy, has devoted considerable time to issues relating to an exit strategy. We are confident we have the necessary tools to withdraw policy accommodation, when that becomes appropriate, in a smooth and timely manner.

James Bullard

Tue, June 30, 2009

[M]onetary policy is accommodative right now, and it will remain accommodative for the foreseeable future.

Kevin Warsh

Tue, June 16, 2009

Stability is a fine goal, but it is not a final one. Long after panic conditions have ended, stability threatens to displace economic growth as the primary macroeconomic policy objective. But we must recognize that the singular pursuit of stability, however well intentioned, may end up making our economy less productive, less adaptive, and less self-correcting--and in so doing, less able to deliver on its alluring promise. This fate, however, does not have to be ours. The U.S. economy is capable, in my judgment, of delivering more.

Richard Fisher

Mon, June 15, 2009

I would love to be a screeching hawk once again, but I just don't think it is appropriate presently.

Richard Fisher

Mon, June 15, 2009

Personally, the idea of our tightening from where we are, I don't see it in the immediate future.

Dennis Lockhart

Thu, June 11, 2009

Higher nominal rates in the term Treasuries market can be seen as an expression of creeping doubt that the American polity, and more specifically the policy community, is up to the sacrifices, tradeoff decisions, and the courage of convictions the situation requires.

The concerns about our economic path are crystallized in doubts expressed in some quarters about the Federal Reserve's ability to fulfill its obligation to deliver low and stable inflation in the face of very large current and prospective federal deficits. In a word, the concerns are about monetization of the resulting federal debt.

I do not dismiss these concerns out of hand. I also recognize that the task of pursuing the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and sustainable growth will be greatly complicated should deliberate and timely action to address our fiscal imbalances fail to materialize. But I have full confidence in the Federal Reserve's ability and resolve to meet its inflation objectives in whatever environment presents itself.

Daniel Tarullo

Mon, June 08, 2009

As has been widely observed in recent weeks, there are signs that the rapid decline in economic activity of the past few quarters is slowing. The latest data give some reason to hope that we are approaching a bottom in economic activity and that growth will resume later this year. Yet stabilization or improvement would begin from very low levels compared with those that prevailed in recent years. Recovery may be painfully slow, and the economy will remain unusually vulnerable to new shocks.

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