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Anecdotal Information, Role of

Laurence Meyer

Wed, December 31, 2003

Anecdotal information delivers a different perspective from that of the data and is especially valued in that it arrives fresh and without the time lag of the data...

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(9.) Some disparage the usefulness of such anecdotal reports, viewing them as unreliable "gossip." I always think of a quote I once heard, attributed to George Stigler, an economies professor at the University of Chicago for most of his career: "Data is just the plural of anecdote." 

(10.) Such anecdotal information likely plays a more important role for the Fed than for other forecasters, in part because Reserve Bank presidents specialize in collecting such information and can be expected, over time, to learn to sort through the comments they receive and identify early signs of changes in the outlook. In addition, they might have access to higher-quality anecdotes than others, because firms will more candidly share information on their spending and hiring plans with the Fed than with others. 

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