[O]ur baseline forecast sees soft economic activity this fall; notably, it is likely that a further sharp decline in residential investment will weigh on the top-line growth numbers. But we see growth recovering next year and moving up to average close to potential later in 2008, which we at the Chicago Fed currently see as being somewhat above 2-1/2 percent. This lower potential number in part reflects an assumed trend in productivity growth that is slower than the trend we experienced over the 1995-2003 period. Nonetheless, the new productivity trend is still a healthy one by longer-term historical standards and, accordingly, should support income creation, job growth, and household and business spending. Solid demand for our exports should also be a plus for growth. Although we expect a small increase in the unemployment rate, labor markets in general should remain healthy. Indeed, on balance, I would characterize the data we have received on the real economy since the last FOMC meeting as supporting our baseline forecast.